ABBV Q2: Skyrizi Overtakes Humira, $10.9B Apogee IL-13 Bet

AbbVie (ABBV) closed July 30 at $257.41, a $454.8 billion market cap. The company reported Q2 2026 revenue of $16.990 billion, up 10.2% year over year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $3.65, up 22.9%. The number everyone noticed: Skyrizi revenue hit $5.505 billion, up 24.4%, surpassing Humira’s $756 million for the first time on a quarterly basis. The post-Humira transition is no longer a thesis. It is a fact.

But the real story is the $10.9 billion Apogee Therapeutics acquisition announced June 22. AbbVie is paying $135.11 per share in cash for a company whose lead asset, zumilokibart (APG777), has Phase 2 data in atopic dermatitis but no Phase 3 results. That is a aggressive price for a pre-Phase 3 asset. Whether it pays off depends on whether zumilokibart’s dosing advantage can disrupt a market dominated by Dupixent.

Portfolio Breakdown: Immunology Carries the Quarter

The immunology portfolio generated $8.786 billion in Q2, up 15.1%. Skyrizi at $5.505 billion and Rinvoq at $2.525 billion (up 24.5%) combined for $8.03 billion in a single quarter. AbbVie has guided Skyrizi to $20 billion in peak annual sales and Rinvoq to $11 billion. Together, that is a $31 billion franchise replacing Humira at its $20 billion peak. The biosimilar erosion of Humira, now at $756 million and declining 35.9% year over year, is background noise. The transition is being absorbed.

Neuroscience delivered $3.228 billion, up 20.3%. Vraylar hit $1.071 billion (up 18.9%), crossing the billion-dollar quarterly threshold. Botox Therapeutic reached $1.042 billion (up 12.2%). Ubrelvy ($392 million, up 16.0%) and Qulipta ($350 million, up 30.9%) are growing fast from small bases in migraine. Vyalev, the new Parkinson’s infusion, contributed $256 million in its first full quarters. This portfolio is no longer a sideshow. It is a $13 billion annualized business growing 20%.

Oncology was the weak spot at $1.650 billion, down 1.5%. Venclexta grew 11.6% to $771 million, but Imbruvica continues its decline at $532 million, down 29.4%. Elahere, the ovarian cancer ADC acquired with ImmunoGen, posted $211 million, up 33.1%. Aesthetics was flat at $1.282 billion. Botox Cosmetic grew 5.2% to $728 million, but Juvederm fell 6.0% to $245 million.

The Apogee Acquisition: $10.9 Billion for a Phase 2 Asset

AbbVie is acquiring Apogee for its lead drug zumilokibart, a half-life extended monoclonal antibody targeting IL-13, and APG273, a dual IL-13/TSLP combination for asthma. The deal is expected to close in Q3 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval. AbbVie expects the transaction to be accretive to adjusted EPS beginning in 2032.

The Phase 2 APEX Part B data, announced May 27, 2026, is the basis for the valuation. In 346 adult patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, mid-dose zumilokibart achieved EASI-75 in 65.9% of patients versus 23.4% on placebo (p<0.001), a 41.9% placebo-adjusted response. IGA 0/1 was 46.0% versus 10.9%. EASI-90 was 47.4% versus 9.3%. Itch reduction (I-NRS >=4) was 50.5% versus 13.9%. The results are strong. The key differentiator is dosing: zumilokibart’s half-life extension technology allows maintenance dosing every 3 to 6 months, compared to Dupixent’s every-2-weeks injection and Ebglyss’s monthly injection. Four induction dosing days versus nine for Dupixent.

AbbVie plans to start Phase 3 ADventure 1 and ADventure 2 trials in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory interactions. The co-primary endpoint is EASI-75 and IGA 0/1 at Week 16, with maintenance assessment at Week 52. This is the binary catalyst that determines whether the $10.9 billion was well spent.

Competitive Picture: Dupixent, Ebglyss, and the IL-13 Market

The atopic dermatitis market was valued at $15.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $27.5 billion by 2033. Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent (dupilumab) dominates with $15.7 billion in 2025 sales, up 25.2%. Dupixent blocks both IL-4 and IL-13 signaling through the shared IL-4R alpha receptor. In its Phase 3 SOLO 1 and SOLO 2 trials, dupilumab achieved EASI-75 in approximately 51% of patients versus 15% on placebo, a 36% placebo-adjusted response (NEJM).

Lilly’s Ebglyss (lebrikizumab), approved in the US in 2024, is the direct IL-13 competitor. In its Phase 3 ADvocate 1 trial, lebrikizumab achieved EASI-75 in 58.8% versus 16.2% on placebo (42.6% placebo-adjusted), and in ADvocate 2, 52.1% versus 18.1% (34.0% placebo-adjusted) (NEJM). Ebglyss offers monthly maintenance dosing.

Zumilokibart’s 41.9% placebo-adjusted EASI-75 is competitive with Ebglyss’s 42.6% in ADvocate 1 and clearly better than Dupixent’s 36%. But this is Phase 2 data, not Phase 3. Phase 2 to Phase 3 is not guaranteed. If zumilokibart’s Phase 3 replicates the Phase 2 effect size, the every-3-to-6-month dosing is a genuine differentiator. In a market where patients on Dupixent inject themselves 26 times a year, cutting that to 2 to 4 times a year matters for adherence and quality of life. That is the thesis AbbVie is paying $10.9 billion to validate.

Valuation: Premium Priced for Immunology Growth

AbbVie trades at $257.41 with a market cap of $454.8 billion. The trailing P/E is 25.84, and the forward P/E is approximately 18.7. The P/S ratio is 7.43, well above the 10-year average of 3.80, reflecting the Skyrizi/Rinvoq growth premium. Annualized Q2 revenue of $68 billion supports a $455 billion market cap at 6.7x run-rate sales.

Compare to Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), covered in the BMY earnings analysis at $128.9 billion market cap with a 2.6x P/S and 9x forward P/E. BMY is growing its Growth Portfolio at 15%, but the legacy franchise is declining. AbbVie’s immunology franchise is growing at 15.1% with no legacy drag that matters anymore. The 7.43x P/S premium over BMY’s 2.61x is justified by the cleaner growth profile and the $31 billion Skyrizi/Rinvoq peak sales guidance.

Biogen, which also reported Q2 earnings this week, offers a cautionary comp. BIIB’s Growth Portfolio overtook Legacy MS for the first time, but the stock trades at a compressed multiple because the market doubts the durability of the transition. AbbVie does not have that problem. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are growing 24% with years of patent protection ahead.

The Apogee deal is 2.4% of AbbVie’s market cap. Even in a worst-case scenario where zumilokibart fails Phase 3, the write-down is absorbable. If Phase 3 succeeds, AbbVie acquires the next-generation immunology drug that extends the franchise into the 2030s. The risk-reward is asymmetric, which is why the deal makes strategic sense even at a premium price. This is the same logic behind Vertex’s $10 billion Crinetics deal: pay up for pipeline optionality when your core franchise is printing cash.

Risks

The Apogee deal has not closed. Regulatory approval or shareholder rejection could kill it, though both boards have approved and major shareholders have signed voting agreements. Beyond the deal, the primary risk is zumilokibart’s Phase 3 execution. Phase 2 atopic dermatitis data does not always replicate. Ebglyss is already on the market with monthly dosing and an entrenched Lilly commercial infrastructure. Dupixent has a 9-year head start and $15.7 billion in annual revenue. Capturing share from two entrenched competitors requires more than better dosing. It requires payer coverage, physician education, and a commercial launch that Apogee has never executed. AbbVie brings that capability, but the launch is years away.

Imbruvica’s 29.4% decline is a separate concern. The oncology portfolio is flat, and Elahere’s 33.1% growth from a $211 million base is not enough to offset Imbruvica’s erosion. AbbVie needs a new oncology catalyst, and the Apogee deal does not address that gap.

Verdict

AbbVie at $257 is a Buy for the immunology franchise alone. Skyrizi overtaking Humira is the milestone, but the numbers are what matter: $8.03 billion in quarterly immunology revenue growing 24%, heading toward $31 billion at peak. The $10.9 billion Apogee acquisition is a strategic option on the next decade of immunology. Zumilokibart’s every-3-to-6-month dosing is a real differentiator in a $27.5 billion market, and the Phase 2 efficacy is competitive with both Dupixent and Ebglyss. Phase 3 starts in H2 2026. That is the next catalyst to watch.

At 18.7x forward earnings with 15% immunology growth, the stock is fairly valued. You are not paying a premium for the Apogee pipeline. You are paying a fair price for the Skyrizi/Rinvoq franchise, and getting the next-generation immunology pipeline for free. The GILD Biktarvy franchise cannibalization pattern does not apply here: AbbVie is buying a drug for a different cytokine target (IL-13) in a different patient population, not competing with its own top seller. The deal adds pipeline depth without cannibalizing the core.

Target: $285 to $300 by mid-2027 if the Apogee deal closes and Phase 3 starts on time. The immunology franchise alone supports $275 at 19x forward earnings. The Apogee pipeline is upside. The risk is a Phase 2-to-Phase 3 miss, but that risk is 18 months away and 2.4% of market cap.